Ole' Saint Nick

Now that we worked off the Thanksgiving stupor, the Christmas season begins in earnest.  Sure, most Christians are familiar with the four weeks of Advent that lead up to Christmas day.  But a more overlooked and underrated holiday epoch is the Feast of Saint Nicholas - December 6th, his date of death (343 AD).  Saint Nicholas of Myra’s reputation, in mostly eastern European countries, was that of a kindly gift giver to young children.   Those who behaved badly would receive a twig or coal under their pillow.  The more virtuous youngsters received fruit or small candy.

The American version has slightly evolved into the children placing their shoes out on December 5^th with hopes that St. Nick would leave a modest present.  This tradition was not lost on the Houlihan homestead.  Blessed with a lengthy hallway, all ten kids would put out a shoe - some tried to slide an extra one - with hopes that a little goodness would find a new home.  Seemed like I got a lot of gold toe socks from Nick which I deemed a strong apathy vote.  Some received candy while others found a rosary or small prayer book – those were the problematic siblings. 

Being a nostalgic softy, I suggested to Michelle we revive this fabled tradition with 10 shoes of our own.  Considering I only own 2 pairs, she could populate the other 8 with her bougie assortment of kicks.  Little did I know a fashion show would ensue as she oddly was looking to impress Nick.  We eventually dimmed the lights & tucked in with high expectations (more on that later) for morning.   

With unbridled giddiness, I tumbled downstairs hoping to score some Reese Cups.  I see post-it-notes attached to the shoes.  What?? I miss Saint Socks.   Shoe #1 – the note reads “Be a cat, not a squirrel.”   Spotting a suspicious kitty litter trail makes me consider this a rogue suggestion from Lucy, not Nick.  But I guess there is a morsal of wisdom here.  All of you cat owners out there understand this: cats will sit quietly for hours before striking while squirrels (and chipmunks) dart around aimlessly.  Squirrels run to Reddit to get the latest AI or Bitcoin tip while the cats are researching, patiently watching and then crack skulls. 

Moving along to the next shoe – “Don’t take investment advice from Freddie Mercury”.  I’m guessing he’s referring to Queen’s 1989 anthem: ‘I Want it All’[i]. This must be similar wisdom – getting rich slowly?  We all can get impatient with our portfolios. But realize markets go up about 30% of the time, down 15% and trend aimlessly the other 55%.  It’s the power of compounding that really works financial magic.

Ah, I’m curious what Nick has to say to the following one, a high heel.  It’s pretty simple: “Larry vs Louis Vuitton”.  Having the best of everything is the nemesis of long-term financial security.  Having a 4 home & ten car mindset will put you on a retirement path that seemingly never begins. I’m Michelle’s Larry. 

Nick is starting to win me over so I head to shoe #4: “Pay your tolls”.  Was he around when bro-in-law busted through a half dozen I-95 tolls in Chicago?   Volatility and drawdowns are the price we pay for equity returns.  Consider since 1928, the average annual market drawdown has been 16% while the S&P has gained an average of 10%[ii].  The market declines are usually pretty brief – like the one we experienced in March/April this year (-19%).

The fifth shoe is one of my grass mowing beaters. “Temper your expectations”.  This is the anthem of IU fans.  (Coach Cig might be a cruel mirage so don’t wake me up).  Expectations are the enemy of happiness – any golfer knows this.  My 96-year-old mom eats lousy, frozen, chocolate chip cookies almost daily – think tasteless scone.  She considers them delicious. Either her taste buds have retired or she has Stockholm Syndrome[i].  But she’s happy.

I skirt over to the next shoe: “Get your eyes checked”.  While I have Readers scattered around my house like cat toys, this has to have a deeper meaning.   Perhaps it’s denominator blindness.  We are a world caught up in statistics but those stats need framing. Company ABC is laying off 3000 employees sounds like a lot until you realize they employ 300,000 worldwide – just 1%.  Warren Buffet sells $5 billion Apple Stock! But what if he owns $100 billion?  Always get the bottom number for reference. 

Nick may have some Asian influence as these quips are starting to read like fortune cookies.  On the seventh shoe is scribbled: “Anchors away”.  He must be referring to cost basis anchoring.  This can be a crippling heuristic that stunts our financial judgement.  If you invest long enough, there will inevitably be underwater investments.  Sometimes it’s best to take the loss (an economic benefit in taxable accounts) and move on.  Don’t allow this condition to fester into Get-even-itis.  

Moving along to shoe #8: “Ignore the Cassandras[ii]”.  In Greek mythology, she was a priestess who uttered catastrophic prophecies but was never believed.  Lots of doomsday predictors in current times.  The markets will crash, the world is about to end, the dollar will collapse etc.  These fatalistic projections are usually made by ‘They Said’.    I need to meet They Said – because this must be the smartest, fastest, strongest, richest & best-looking person on earth.       

I don’t see any candy in the last two shoes.  Philosophical St. Nick getting Scroogie in his later years.  Shoe #9: “Plan don’t predict”.  Now Nick is quoting Howard Marks[iii]?  Along with the Cassandras, we all love to hear predictions.  Unfortunately, they’re usually gonzo.  Michelle said I was a horrendous marketer when I was once asked what I do for a living: “Being wrong”.  I’ve learned to not bother with predictions but rather deal in probabilities – providing at least a statistical foundation for an off opinion.  

On to the last shoe: “Go pro”.   I know he’s not referring to my golf game. Perhaps if none of the first 9 suggestions make any sense, outsource one’s finances or at least get a second opinion?  Maybe Nick dropped a little sweet treat off after all.  

Merry Christmas.    

Fiscal Fitness is a publication of Houlihan Asset Management, LLC for the benefit of its clients and friends.     Houlihan Asset Management.  Wealth Counseling/Asset Management. Copyright 2025

[1] I Want it All

[1] A Wealth of Common Sense

[i] Stockholm Syndrome

[ii] Cassandra

[iii] Howard Marks